Is Malaysia going to buy JF-17s from Pakistan ?

Is Malaysia going to buy JF-17s from Pakistan?

The JF-17 & The Malaysian Government: In most military purchase the Prime Minister of Malaysia makes the final call to buy. In many cases those purchase was based on political decision rather than Military decision. At times it has internally angered the military and this lead to complex issues. The Malaysian Armed Forces do face their own limitations but most are always ignored by the Government. This lead towards weapons malfunction, lack of service and even the lack of funds to service them. According to many in the military, some of the military equipment bought were of useless value. The JF-17 was presented to the visiting Malaysian Prime Minister. My first impression is that Malaysia will buy the JF-17 without elaborating much news to local and international audience. It was a true red carpet treatment for the Malaysian Prime Minister

The JF-17 was aggressively been marketed to the Malaysians since 2015. Malaysia started the MRCA tender many times without a decision and this has angered the international suppliers when the tender was postpone many times without decision. Malaysia has faced funds shortage and were looking at the barter trade, especially in Palm Oil which are on the verge of a ban in Europe due to deforestation, corruption and the removal of land from indigenous people. China and Pakistan has accepted the idea about the Palm Oil barter trade with Malaysia. Pakistan urgently needed the sale because it reflects on trust of the Pakistan aviation industry as well as that of China. Both are large users of Palm Oil and this could be an opportunity for Pakistan to expand its client base for the JF-17. The JF-17 has been inspected by Malaysian air force officials and they have seen what they liked but there was still conflict from within and the arguments comes from the Logistics department who will share the great burden. However, the likely chance of Malaysia buying the JF-17 is pretty high.

Malaysia has indicated that it lacks the finances to buy the latest and most modern fighters from the West. The JF-17 is considered a political selection due to the good relations between Malaysia and Pakistan. China and Pakistan has agreed to offer the JF-17 under the barter trade with Palm Oil.

The JF-17 could be an ideal fighter for Malaysia. It is affordable and removes any policies issues that the West imposed. Furthermore, barter trade will be the norm of payment. Apart from Russia, western suppliers do not agree on the barter with preference for hard currency as payment. They understand that Malaysia is flushed with petroleum money with an annual income of US$50 billion from Petronas. This is a financial statement to weapons suppliers.

Moving forward, many said Malaysia lacks the money to buy modern and advance jet fighters. Thats poppycock story to be honest. Malaysia seats in great commodities reserves such as oil and palm oil. Petronas earns a whopping USD70 billion per year with a pre-tax profit US$50 billion. Even a small of this fortunate could buy and equip the Royal Malaysian Air Force with a latest state of the art jet fighters. But as usual, Malaysia is on the cheap and not understanding that the long term support is expensive.

The JF-17 has its DNA roots from the MiG-21 when one study how the JF-17 came about from the FC-1 and from there was the J-7 a copy of the MiG-21

In my opinion, Malaysia do have choices but in today’s political climate, the decision is made by the Government and not the military. Which fighter will put up a good fight to challenge the JF-17. The options is wide but in my view, the selection has narrowed down to a few possibilities:

1. South Korean KAI FA-50 Golden Eagle LCA

2. Indian HAL Tejas Mk.2

3. Russian YAK-130

The most competitive fighter here to match the JF-17 is the South Korean FA-50. In my judgement, the FA-50 would be the most suitable between the 2. Why because Malaysia already have the current infrastructure and most of the vendors through the US supply chain. And it is compatible with US weapons Malaysia have. While the JF-17 is mostly equipped with Chinese weapons. If Malaysia wanted to employ a mix of western and Russian weapons, probably the unit cost of the JF-17 will be higher because of these upgrades and changes.

Lets briefly note on the advantage of the FA-50

· Similar engine to Malaysia’s Hornet. Helps to lower cost in parts, training. It could also result in economy of scale too. Malaysia is on the verge of buying surplus Hornet from Kuwait and that means the country has sound planning and sense to further enhance the number of Hornet it wants.

· The FA-50 can use the same weapons that the Hornet and Hawk carries.

· The FA-50 could be integrated between Hornet and Hawk with advance communications and datalink.

· It would help to interlink with US strategic forces in times of war.

· The FA-50 is a dual set fighter and can provide advance training too.

What is the Con of the FA-50

· It is more expensive than the JF-17 to buy but it could also be much cheaper to operate during its lifecycle

· The South Koreans prefer to be paid in cash rather than barter trade

· There are some Israeli equipment which the Koreans need to change and this may increase the unit cost

· The Block 20 is under development and should be available in 2021 and by which time it could be expensive than the JF-17

The FA-50 is the RMAF chosen platform when i talked to key Air Force people in Malaysia who wanted to remain anonymous fearing of repercussions. The FA-50 was what the RMAF selected because it logistics as key issue and the interoperability of US ground systems and weapons which Malaysia have but in smaller quantity.

The FA-50 and its versions are in wide spread use in countries around Malaysia and some in the middle east. Philippines and Indonesia operate this jet and it has recently perform according to expectations during Philippine clash with terrorist groups.

This is the Block 20 model with AMRAAM. Malaysia has all these weapons that could be used on the FA-50. The very same weapons Malaysia has for its F/A-18D. You see how convenience this is for RMAF and its logistics unit.

It looks very capable indeed

Of course the JF-17 do come with its benefits

· China and Pakistan agrees on 100% barter trade. Good for the Malaysians. No need to take out any hard currency

· Malaysia will have a light weight cheap fighter. Well not that cheap but still affordable at US$30 million for a block 3.

· Malaysia gets to first time used an AESA radar made in China alongside with the latest weapons from China too.

· Malaysia have experience on the JF-17 engines as these are similar to the much hated MiG-29 engines. I am not sure if the RMAF will be happy again when the old nightmare of servicing an expensive engine comes back to haunt them again.

· The JF-17 can be dual used like the FA-50 can. It has a 2-seat fighter but Malaysia will likely buy both single seat and two seat

· Malaysia could buy the JF-17 in huge numbers. To be honest 36 is not enough during war. Malaysia needs about 54 at the minimum to fight a low to medium intensity war with a short time frame.

· It is compatible with Malaysia inflight refuelling system

· It will incorporate Helmet mounted system of Chinese origin as similar to their Hornet and MiG-29 pilots used too. However i am not surprised Malaysia will recycle the MiG-29 French helmets to be used on the JF-17

· The JF-17 is open in system architecture and this mean Malaysia can adds all sort of bits and bobs to the jet. While the FA-50 is not and need permission to do so which they won't give.

· Is more agile than the FA-50

· The JF-17 could use western weapons as what the Pakistanis are doing.

The Con of this JF-17

· The RMAT hated the MiG-29 engines and not sure if support cost from China is cheap.

· The JF-17 is not battle proven other than the small skirmish between India and Pakistan recently

· The JF-17 is not in widespread use by countries. Only Pakistan is the major user together with Myanmar and Nigeria which ordered 3.

· The JF-17 may require expensive ground support equipment

· Malaysia need to send people for training which increase the duration for IOC for the jets

· Operation cost per hour is not known but based on calculation and assumption, its is cheaper than the F-16 and probably comparable to the FA-50 as the JF-17 uses advance western technologies

In my opinion, the FA-50 is the ideal platform but in the context of saving money, the RMAF would need to swallow its pride and be proud to operate a jet fighter made in China and Pakistan, the first for Malaysia. Funny as it sound, Malaysia operated some of the best fighters prior to Mahathir intervention of buying jet fighters. Unfortunately he is not the Shah of Iran who bought the latest and top of the light fighters and his foresight remains to this day in Iran. Mahathir on the other hand aimed for the cheapest and prettiest and those who could pleased him including the role out of the red carpet.

Malaysia should opt for the M346FA as its advance trainer but Malaysia like Indonesia is pissed at the ban of Palm oil. So how the hell Malaysia will pay for these jets when there is no income from Europe in Palm oil.

If Malaysia really aimed for the JF-17, 36 my friends is not enough. Malaysia needs more. This is the reason why Pakistan aims to buy more than 400 of these fighters to replace old ones. Malaysia will need to replace the 18 MiG-29s, as well as 18 MRCA fighters and add another 18–24 more jets it needs to even begin patrolling the skies and relieve some of that headache on the poor overused Hawk 200; All in all, Malaysia need at least 54 fighters but then again if there is a conflict with China in the South China Sea, all 54 could be grounded.

Alternative to the M346FA is the same jet from Russia call the YAK-130 and i understand Russia has offered 18 of these jets with 100% barter on palm oil. In my view, Malaysia should take this offer to replace or complement the existing training aircraft it has

The YAK-130 looks very promising with secondary combat role. However i might assume its operational cost is much higher than the Hawk 200 the RMAF is using now. It is ideal for combat patrol and board patrol with better over the sea safety due to twin engine.

The JF-17 could be modified however these are an expensive options. If Malaysia would need to adopt the JF-17, this would mean it has weapons from US, Europe, China and Russia. That alone presents a logistical headache during war let alone peacetime. Malaysia could ask Pakistan to modify their JF-17 weapon system because its on open architecture and adapt them to use both Russians and US weapons giving the RMAF flexibility however there will be problems during delivery and performance that the weapons combination may not perform according to specifications.

Before Malaysia buys, can i suggest the following

· The Prime Minister should not interfere in the evaluation of defence products and purchase. It should be left to the military to identify the products they need, undertake a indent in-country evaluations and then provide the preference with Plan A and Plan B

· The Defence Purchase should tie in the Ministry of Finance review of the purchase and offer letters from the vendor

· It should be a G2G agreement rather than go through an expensive middlemen which is not in the interest of Tax Payers. They Tax Payers are not there to make middlemen rich, they selected the government to look after the people’s interest which is not what is happening in Malaysia.

· After that the selection and evaluation results with discussion by the armed forces, it should go for a final discussion and negotiations be it payment terms or barter or both.

When the Prime Minister or any ministers get involve unrelated to the benefits of the armed forces then thats a red flag and a big one at that!

Best selection would be 54 of the FA-50 Block 20 fighters from South Korea. A good investment in the defence of Malaysia and their people. Or else be open to buying the JF-17 and open the door of unknown issues when Malaysia in time confronts China with its South China Sea invasion. There is more con over pro when buying the JF-17. In my view, Petronashas the money to buy 54 FA-50 with no sweat!…Cash in full. Thank you. I would be surprise the South Koreans gave Malaysia a big discount. Who will smile, the pilots and the logistics and the entire staff and employees of the ROYAL MALAYSIAN AIR FORCE.